By the NairaDecoded Editorial Team. Based on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) September 2026 CPI report, published 15 October 2026, and reporting by BusinessDay and Leadership. Last updated: 24 October 2026.
Key takeaways
- Headline inflation eased to 14.63% in September, from 15.39% in August. That is the fourth slowdown in a row.
- Prices barely moved in the month itself: +0.06% month-on-month, the smallest monthly rise in our coverage so far.
- Food prices actually fell 1.55% in the month, but food is still 19.59% dearer than a year ago.
- Energy went the other way: up 5.38% in one month.
- Lagos had the highest food inflation of any state, at 34.40%.
The news
On 15 October, the NBS said Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 14.63% in September 2026. A year earlier, in September 2025, it was 20.98%. If you have followed our August breakdown, this is the same story moving in the same direction: prices are still rising, but more slowly.
The numbers
| Measure | September 2026 | August 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (year-on-year) | 14.63% | 15.39% |
| Headline inflation (month-on-month) | 0.06% | 0.71% |
| Food inflation (year-on-year) | 19.59% | 19.57% |
| Food inflation (month-on-month) | -1.55% | +1.02% |
| Urban inflation (year-on-year) | 15.64% | 15.88% |
| Rural inflation (year-on-year) | 12.46% | n/a |
| Core inflation (year-on-year) | 12.95% | n/a |
Source: NBS September 2026 CPI report, as reported by BusinessDay. “n/a” means the figure was not in the reporting we checked.
Explain it like I’m 5
Imagine a bus that has been speeding. Inflation slowing down means the bus is braking. It is still moving forward, so prices are still higher than last year, but it is not racing ahead as fast. In September, the bus nearly stopped for a moment: prices across the whole economy rose just 0.06% in a month.
The explanation: three things happened at once
1. The harvest pushed food prices down
Food prices fell 1.55% between August and September. The NBS named cheaper local rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, onions, palm oil, tomatoes, okra, Irish potatoes, plantain and eggs. Farm produce prices fell 2.86% in the month. September is harvest season in much of the country, so more food reaches markets.
2. But food is still far dearer than a year ago
Here is the catch. Yearly food inflation hardly moved: 19.59% in September against 19.57% in August. One cheaper month does not undo a year of increases. A basket of food that cost ₦100,000 in September 2025 costs about ₦119,590 today.
3. Energy and services kept rising
Energy prices jumped 5.38% in a single month, and services rose 0.41%. Core inflation, which strips out farm produce and energy, rose 1.11% month-on-month after a slight dip in August. So outside the food market, price pressure has not gone away. That is why many households still feel squeezed even when the headline number falls.
The impact on your money
- Salary. If your pay has not changed since September 2025, it now buys about 13% less. A ₦250,000 salary has the buying power of about ₦218,100 a year ago (₦250,000 ÷ 1.1463). Use our real-pay formula to check your own.
- Savings. Any savings earning less than 14.63% a year is still losing value in real terms. See nominal vs real returns.
- Loans. Slowing inflation is one reason the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cut its benchmark rate to 23% in September. Loan costs could ease, slowly.
- Your city. Urban inflation (15.64%) is still above rural inflation (12.46%). If you live in a big city, your cost of living is probably rising faster than the headline number.
A real-life example
Ngozi runs a small food stall in Enugu. In September, her tomatoes, pepper and palm oil cost less than in August, so her ingredient bill fell. But the diesel for her generator and her transport to the market both went up. Her costs did not drop as much as the food headlines suggested. That is the September report in one stall: cheaper food, dearer energy.
This is an illustrative example, not a real person.
Your options
- Buy staples while harvest prices last. If you have storage space and cash flow, stocking rice, garri or beans during the harvest dip can lock in lower prices. Food prices often rise again after the harvest.
- Review your energy spending. With energy up 5.38% in a month, fuel, gas and power are now where costs are rising fastest. Track them for one month to see the real number.
- Ask about a pay review using real numbers. “Prices are up 14.63% in a year” is a factual starting point for a pay conversation.
- Check what your savings earn. Compare your savings rate with 14.63%. If it is lower, you are losing purchasing power.
What to watch
- The October CPI report, due from the NBS in mid-November. Watch whether food keeps falling month-on-month once the harvest passes.
- Energy prices: petrol, diesel and cooking gas. They are now the main source of upward pressure.
- The next CBN Monetary Policy Committee meeting, and whether the September rate cut is followed by another.
- The naira, which traded around ₦1,332 to the dollar at the official market in mid-October. A weaker naira makes imported goods dearer.
Bottom line
September was a genuinely good month for food prices and a fourth straight slowdown for inflation. But “inflation is falling” still means “prices are rising more slowly”, not “prices are falling”. Food is nearly a fifth dearer than a year ago, and energy is rising fast. New to these terms? Read our inflation dictionary.
Sources
- Nigeria’s inflation drops to 14.63% as food prices fall in September (BusinessDay)
- Inflation falls to 14.63% in September as food prices drop (Leadership)
- Nigeria’s imported food inflation slows, but prices remain high (P.M. News)
- Primary data: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), CPI and Inflation Reports
- Featured image: FAdelabu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
This article explains published economic data and is not financial advice. See our Disclaimer. Figures are accurate as of the sources’ publication dates and may have changed since.
FAQ
What is Nigeria’s inflation rate for September 2026?
14.63% year-on-year, according to the NBS, down from 15.39% in August 2026 and 20.98% in September 2025.
Did food prices fall in September 2026?
Yes, in the month. Food prices fell 1.55% between August and September. But compared with a year earlier, food was still 19.59% more expensive.
Why does life still feel expensive if inflation is falling?
Because falling inflation means prices are rising more slowly, not falling. Energy prices also rose 5.38% in September alone, and food is still nearly a fifth dearer than a year ago.
Which state had the highest food inflation in September 2026?
Lagos, at 34.40% year-on-year, followed by Imo (33.79%) and Ondo (31.49%), according to the NBS figures reported by BusinessDay.
